The Role of Modification of CURB-65 Score as Prediction Factor for One Year Survival in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease


Widya Sri Hastuti, Wiwien Heru Wiyono, Ratnawati, Iwang Gumiwang, Joedo Prihartono


Introduction : Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Cardiovascular disease is major cause of mortality in COPD. We hypothesized a risk-prediction model using modification of CURB-65 score (CURB-65 with cardiovascular disease) could predict risk of death in AECOPD. Methods : Investigation had been done prospectively the 1-year mortality rate for all patients with an AECOPD between August 2011 until December 2012. The modification of CURB-65 Score were calculated from information obtained at initial hospital presentation. The relation between modification of CURB-65 score and risk of mortality was evaluated after 12 months. Results : 76 patients had been enrolled. The mortality rate during 30 days was 9,2% and one-year mortality was 27,6%. The prevalence of cardiovascular disease was 63,2%. There was significant correlation between smoking status, respiratory rate and modification of CURB-65 score with 30 days risk of mortality. There was significant correlation between smoking status, BMI, duration of COPD, severity of COPD, FEV1 %, PFR and respiratory rate, cardiovascular comorbidity and modification of CURB-65 score with 12 months risk of mortality. Conclusion : The modification of CURB-65 score was effective in predicting mortality in our cohort of acute COPD exacerbations. This model may be useful in predicting prognosis for individuals and thus in guiding treatment decisions. (J Respir Indo. 2013; 33:244-57)

Keywords : Acute exacerbation of COPD, modification of CURB-65 score, mortality.

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